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Friday, July 17, 2009

Alpha Edge - Global equity technicals - Wave "c'" has started? (CIMB)

The strong rebound of the US equity market over the past week caught us by surprise and probably negated our S&P500 head & shoulder formation. The S&P500 may have already completed its minor wave "b" consolidation at the end of last week and the wave "c" up leg may have just begun. If so, the index could hit 1,050. The Dollar Index looks technically weak, with the MACD and RSI technical indicators turning negative. We see one more down leg minor wave "v" to complete the minor wave "c". This would synchronise with our view that global equity markets could have just started their minor wave "c" upleg. We believe the performance of South Korea's Kospi could give us an idea where Asian markets are heading in the coming weeks. The index led Asia's rally since Mar and peaked in May, earlier than the other Asian equity markets. Kospi should be the first to start its minor wave "c".

 

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