The US recession may be easing, but the economy has not hit bottom yet and mounting unemployment looks likely to keep demand sluggish for a while, according to Reuters on March 30.
A slew of recent data -- including stronger-than-expected reports on orders for big-ticket manufactured goods, housing and retail sales -- has led many economists to declare that the worst of the 15-month, housing-led recession is over.
While the economy still appears on a downward path, the slope is not as steep as many had feared.
"We have seen in the last few weeks enough meaningful indicators that show the economic contraction has slowed," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
"The odds have increased markedly that we are approaching an inflection point in the economic cycle and that the worst of the recession is behind us," he said. "We're now probably months away from bottoming out."
"We can see some green shoots out there in the economy, but that's not enough at this point to tell me definitively that we are close to bottoming out in this process," said Robert Dye senior economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.
"There remain significant down drafts in the economy. The linkage between falling home prices, weak consumer confidence, squeezed corporate profits and deteriorating labor markets remains very much in place."
"We are in the final stage of recession, one that will probably bottom out the next two quarters. A recovery is foreseen in the second half of the year, but growth will be so sluggish that most Americans will not make the distinction,' said the Economic Outlook Group's Baumohl. - Reuters
No comments:
Post a Comment