April 6 (Bloomberg) -- European and U.S. stock futures rose and Asian shares climbed, sending the MSCI World Index to a two- month high, on growing speculation government efforts are reviving the global economy. Treasuries fell and the yen declined against the dollar and the euro.
Some reports in the past month suggested the pace of economic decline is easing. U.S. durable-goods orders and home sales rose in February, while Chinese manufacturing increased.
In 11 recessions since 1938, U.S. stocks have rebounded an average of five months before a recovery in earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The American economy has contracted for 16 months, equaling the two longest slumps -- between 1973-1975 and 1981-1982 -- since the Great Depression. The first-quarter earnings season starts tomorrow with Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum maker.
The slide in earnings may moderate in the second and third quarters, and profits may start growing by the end of year, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg. Banks will be responsible for all of the 76 percent rebound in the final three months of the year, because without financial companies, the gain turns into a 4.5 percent decline, the data show.
No comments:
Post a Comment