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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

FBM KLCI : Consolidating (OSK)

The index gapped down at the opening and yesterday’s 6.39-pt retracement pushed the FBM KLCI even closer to the recent crucial floor at 1,517 pts. Cracking this floor will increase the risk of the index re-testing the very critical 1,474 pt-level.

The bulls would not want to see another test at the 1,474 pt-level. As this level has been tested four times since October last year, every new test of the 1,474 pt-level would raise the odds of it being taken out.

As highlighted in the above daily chart, all the previous four major tests of the 1,474 pt-level had been subsequently followed by a strong rebound. Hence, psychological or technically, when such a critical support can no longer provide support for the market, it is expected to trigger a major breakdown signal. The sell-down would also typically be rather forceful.

We will maintain our bullish view on the near-term market until the 1,474 pt-level is violated. Meanwhile, it is still hard to tell which direction the market will be heading for the rest of the week.

While the index has violated the short-term uptrend line, its retracement so far from the recent peak of 1,565 pts is still only about 50% of the run-up from the 1,474 pt-level, which we consider as healthy. Immediate support is still seen at last Wednesday’s low of 1,517 pts, while the 1,500-pt psychological mark would be the next support. To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the 1,544 pt-level, followed by the 1,565 pt-level, and the historic high of 1,577 pts.

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