A sense of déjà-vu - The global growth outlook continues to worsen, exacerbated by the persistent European sovereign debt crisis, which has gone from bad to worse. Particularly worrisome is the adverse financial conditions and the weakening real economy, which are mutually reinforcing each other and propagating a downward spiral in the advanced economies, a pattern mirroring the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We cut our 2011-12 GDP growth forecasts for the advanced and emerging economies for the second time since Aug.
Strategy - The going gets tough but the bargains keep coming - As macro risks are on the rise, we scale back our end-2012 KLCI target from 1,660 pts to 1,570pts, in sync with our economics team’s GDP growth downgrade. But value is emerging and investors should start trawling for bombed-out stocks.
Economic Report 2011/12 - Feeling the chill - As external conditions worsen, Malaysia is latching on to domestic demand to keep the economy going, with support coming from focused public spending and higher capex by non-financial public enterprises. But the country is not straying from its path of fiscal sustainability as it targets a smaller budget deficit of 4.7% of GDP for 2012. Although the Budget measures will help to support the domestic engine, they cannot take up all the slack left by weak exports. We cut our GDP growth estimates by 0.5-1.7% pts to 4.5% this year and 3.8% for 2012. Strategy - 2012
Budget – an election budget? The budget theme of welfare for the population and the well-being of the nation has little impact on the stockmarket but will go down well with the man in the street. Even the RPGT hike, mild as it is, can be seen in the light of keeping homes affordable.
Strategy - The going gets tough but the bargains keep coming - As macro risks are on the rise, we scale back our end-2012 KLCI target from 1,660 pts to 1,570pts, in sync with our economics team’s GDP growth downgrade. But value is emerging and investors should start trawling for bombed-out stocks.
Economic Report 2011/12 - Feeling the chill - As external conditions worsen, Malaysia is latching on to domestic demand to keep the economy going, with support coming from focused public spending and higher capex by non-financial public enterprises. But the country is not straying from its path of fiscal sustainability as it targets a smaller budget deficit of 4.7% of GDP for 2012. Although the Budget measures will help to support the domestic engine, they cannot take up all the slack left by weak exports. We cut our GDP growth estimates by 0.5-1.7% pts to 4.5% this year and 3.8% for 2012. Strategy - 2012
Budget – an election budget? The budget theme of welfare for the population and the well-being of the nation has little impact on the stockmarket but will go down well with the man in the street. Even the RPGT hike, mild as it is, can be seen in the light of keeping homes affordable.
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