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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

US Stocks: Investors hit pause ahead of Fed, ECB (ext.CNN)


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed down slightly Tuesday amid another day of cautious trading ahead of meetings by U.S. and European central bankers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 64 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 lost 6 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 6 points, or 0.2%.
While investors sifted through a handful of encouraging economic reports, they were mostly sitting back and waiting for central bank meetings when they'll find out whether the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will announce new stimulus measures to boost the economy.
"It's hard to believe that someone is going to make any big bets with the possibility of something drastic coming out of either central bank," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets.
The Fed's two-day meeting kicked off Tuesday, with an announcement due Wednesday afternoon.
"The Fed has three credible options, and the hope is that one of them comes to fruition," said Hogan. "If we don't get anything, this is a market that will be disappointed. But at the same time, even if they do something, I'm not sure how much will be enough."
The most likely step the Fed will take is cutting the interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves from its current 0.25% to zero, following the ECB's decision earlier this month to cut its deposit rate to zero, said Hogan.
The Fed could also extend its plan to keep interest rates near zero beyond its current 2014 forecast, he said.
Hogan said the least likely outcome is a third round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
"Expectations for QE3 at this meeting are very low, but the market will expect hints on future actions," he said. "The market has priced in some type of change in language."
The ECB will take center stage Thursday, when its Governing Council meets in Frankfurt.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but gained ground versus the British pound.
Oil for September delivery fell $2.18 to $87.60 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery lost $9.20 to $1,610.50 an ounce.

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