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Monday, January 5, 2009

Daily MSO (Constructed by Smartbiz)

Explanation:
The Daily MSO Chart keeps track of daily MSO movement for the past 100 trading days. The Daily Oscillator was constructed by composing the Numbers of Gainers and Losers weighted by Volume per minute of each market day.

As you can see, the Daily Oscillator (white) is too erratic to depict any meaningful indication of the market sentiment. That’s why it has been called “Oscillator”. The key Indicator of the Chart is the 5-Days Average (blue) which gives more meaningful indication.

The 20-Days (yellow) and 50-Days Average (red) are Secondary Indicators which act like gauges. When the 5-Days Average cut any of these two lines it confirms its trend.

Reading the Chart:
From the Chart, you should have noticed that the 5-Days Average stayed in negative zone most of the time. This is inline with the poor market sentiment for the last few months.

The 5-Day Average noticeably bounced to as high as +254.34 on November 5, 2008. This is because on the fourth, Najib announced the Stimulus Package and Obama won the US Precedential Election. Market strength slowly faded out as the Stimulus Package was deemed unclear and no affirmative action was mentioned.

The key Indicator eventually fell to -181.12 on November 21 and only returned to positive zone on December 10, 2008 at +34.70.

Last week, the Indicator sank into negative zone again as market failed to stage any New Year rally. But higher oil prices due to Gaza violence pushed it back to positive zone last Friday.

Nevertheless, the 5-Days Average always moved within the uptrend channel for the past two months. This shows market sentiment improved gradually in tandem to Asian markets which have shown a lot of resilience. US market also traded with some stabilization for the past one month. It is the encouragement of this charts that I started accumulating shares gradually. But I sold too soon after seeing no New Year rally. The Gaza violence came too late.

Today’s Readings:
Today’s market led by both Plantation and Oil counters was so strong that the key Indicator (5-Days Average) surged and stayed above the uptrend channel. This signal confirms that near term rally will continue for some times.

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