We initiate coverage on Daya with a MYR0.48 FV, pegged to 15x
FY14F EPS, in line with other small cap oil & gas (O&G)
companies. The O&G division will spearhead its growth going
forward, given its ambition to expand its expertise beyond the
downstream segment. We like Daya’s strong earnings growth,
attractive 12x FY14F P/E and potential ownership of vessels to
capture higher recurring earnings.
- An undiscovered gem. Despite a shift in focus to the O&G segment in 2007 from polymers and technical services, Daya has yet to receive the attention it deserves from the investment community. We believe this is due to the lack of a solid domestic track record. Locally, Daya has only been involved in the Tapis enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and Telok Gas Development projects.
- First local O&G company to clinch a North Sea job. A major milestone for Daya was when its subsidiary, Daya Offshore Construction (DOC), landed two long-term North Sea contracts from Technip totalling up to MYR610m in August this year.
- Potential vessel ownership will add significantly to bottomline. Management indicates that DAYA intends to acquire stakes in the Siem Daya 1 (SD1) and Siem Daya 2 (SD2) offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs). If finalised, we are positive on the deal despite the group having to take on higher debt, as – assuming a 51% stake in a USD120m vessel and 75% debt to total asset – we estimate DAYA’s share of net profit at MYR4.9m per annum per vessel.
- O&G to drive 21% EPS CAGR over FY12-15F. We expect Daya to achieve 65%/27%/6.8% earnings growth for FY13F/14F/15F, mainly driven by its North Sea charter contract and higher orderlook recognition from offshore services.
- BUY, MYR0.48 FV. Our FV is based on a 15x FY14F P/E, in line with other small cap O&G stocks. Daya is trading at a FY14F P/E of 12x, or a 25% discount to its comparable peer average. The key risks are: i) falling out with Siem Offshore (SIOFF NO, NR), ii) inability to maintain high fleet utilisation, iii) loss of key personnel, and iv) USD volatility.
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